Samyam Shrestha

The U.S. farm labor supply depends heavily on foreign-born workers, almost half of whom are unauthorized. Over the past few decades, this labor supply has steadily declined, leading to tighter farm labor markets, widespread reports of worker shortages, and rising wages. At the same time, domestic production of major labor-intensive fruit and vegetable (FV) crops has decreased, while imports and trade deficits have grown substantially. Against this backdrop, this study examines whether intensified immigration enforcement in the U.S. interior, a supply-side shock to farm labor availability affects domestic and international FV trade flows. First, I demonstrate that a state's FV production decreases with the intensification of immigration enforcement. Using reduced-form gravity models, I then show that immigration enforcement reduces FV exports to other U.S. states and foreign trading partners. I also show that a state’s FV imports from other U.S. states increase with enforcement intensity, especially from states with lower enforcement levels. Most of these effects are driven by police-based rather than employment-based enforcement. However, I do not find evidence that immigration enforcement contributes to the rise in international FV imports. These results have important implications for U.S. agricultural and trade policy, food supply systems, and consumer welfare.

We use administrative panel data on the universe of Brazilian formal workers to investigate the labor market effects of the Venezuelan crisis in Brazil, focusing on the border state of Roraima. The results using difference-in-differences show that the monthly wages of Brazilians in Roraima increased by around 2 percent, which was mostly driven by those working in sectors and occupations with no refugee involvement. The study finds negligible job displacement for Brazilians but finds evidence of native workers moving to occupations without immigrants. We also find that immigrants in the informal market offset the substitution effects in the formal market.